Global Water Issue Author Spotlight: Stephen Bourne

The Winter 2011 Issue of the Florida Watershed Journal will feature papers that discuss the importance of global water issues and how those can and will translate to Florida.  Steve Bourne is one of the authors that will be featured in this upcoming issue.  Steve’s paper is highlighted below.

Flooding causes millions of dollars in damage and even loss of life each year.  Flood preparedness starts with an accurate understanding of the total depth of rainfall that can be expected in storms.  Traditionally, potential storms are quantified according to the total water they will deliver and the probability with which they will occur.  For example, in Tampa, Florida, the storm with 1% chance of occurrence in any given year will deliver approximately 12 inches of rainfall over a 24 hour period (Hershfield, 1961).  Often, this storm is referred to as the 100-year storm, or the storm with a 100-year return period.  As concerns over climate change grow, the fundamental assumption that the size of the 100 year storm remains the same over time is being questioned.  In a new article in the FWJ, Stephen Bourne from the Atkins engineering consultancy explores the question of how Florida storms may change in the future.  Using a combination of general circulation model (GCM) projections of 21^st century Florida weather and libraries of actual historical storms, Mr. Bourne demonstrates a method for predicting the localized impacts of climate change on storm frequency and volume using Tampa, Florida as an example.